ProofDoctrine paperVersion 1.0

The Credible Promise Threshold

A promise becomes persuasive only when it is connected to a believable mechanism, relevant evidence and a source entitled to make it.

Explanation

Specificity can make a claim vivid, but vividness is not credibility. The stronger the promised change, the greater the burden placed on mechanism, evidence and source authority.

The threshold is contextual. A familiar low-risk offer may require little explanation; a consequential institutional claim may require documented proof, careful limits and explicit uncertainty.

Practical implications

  • Match the strength of proof to the strength and consequence of the promise.
  • Explain why the result should occur, not only that it has occurred before.
  • Use restraint as evidence of judgement rather than weakening every claim with vagueness.

Examples

  • A professional service explains its method, relevant experience and boundaries instead of promising certainty.
  • A product claim is supported by a demonstration that resembles the buyer's actual operating conditions.

Limitations

  • No amount of proof removes all uncertainty from a future outcome.
  • Authority can support a claim but must not replace evidence relevant to the claim itself.

Application question

What would a careful sceptic need to see before granting permission to believe this promise?

Citation

Paul Ajeh Magaji, “The Credible Promise Threshold,” The Rhetoric Agency Doctrine Library, version 1.0. Accessed at http://localhost:3000/doctrines/credible-promise-threshold.

Related doctrines

Begin with the problem

A doctrine becomes valuable when it changes what we notice.

Bring an offer, message or institutional question and use the application question as the beginning of diagnosis.